Current Prediction: Both CON and LAB short 46 of majority
Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats CON 37.0% 307 33.7% 280 LAB 29.7% 258 31.8% 280 LIB 23.6% 57 10.1% 18 UKIP 3.2% 0 13.2% 1 Green 1.0% 1 5.3% 1 SNP 1.7% 6 4.1% 49 PlaidC 0.6% 3 0.6% 3 Minor 3.4% 0 1.2% 0 N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 27 Apr 2015, sampling 21,360 people.
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 37.0% | 307 | 33.7% | 280 |
| LAB | 29.7% | 258 | 31.8% | 280 |
| LIB | 23.6% | 57 | 10.1% | 18 |
| UKIP | 3.2% | 0 | 13.2% | 1 |
| Green | 1.0% | 1 | 5.3% | 1 |
| SNP | 1.7% | 6 | 4.1% | 49 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 3 |
| Minor | 3.4% | 0 | 1.2% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 2015 to 27 Apr 2015, sampling 21,360 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
Nat choice of Con/Lab
22%
Con/Nat coalition
21%
Lab/Nat coalition
19%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Conservative majority
9%
Labour majority
8%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Conservative majority |
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| Labour majority |
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| No overall control |
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