Saturday 28 March 2015

A review of council By Elections for March

Thanks to MiddleEnglander for collating the information

There were 11 by-elections during March 2015, including 1 candidate returned unopposed, with 5 (45%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party  Candidates      Defended       Retained          Gained             Lost                Won         retention rate
Conservative           9           1           1           2
           3        100%
Labour           8           5           3
           2           3          60%
Liberal Democrats             5





SNP           4           1           1           2
           3        100%
Plaid Cymru           2





UKIP           3           1

           1
            0%
Green           5




           
Resident Group            1           1

           1                       0%
Independent *           8           2           1           1           1           2          50%
Total         45         11           6           5           5         11          55%

* 8 Independents contesting 7 seats

Conservatives retained Brent: Kenton whilst gaining Essex: Bocking from UKIP and Vale of Glamorgan: Llantwit Major from Llantwit First Independents
- 12.2% majority in Kenton over Labour in this traditionally Conservative 3 seat ward
  ~4% swing to Labour since 2014 but ~3% swing to Conservative since 2011 by-election and small swing since 2010
- 3.1% majority in Bocking over UKIP in a division won by Labour in 2005, Conservative in 2009 and UKIP in 2013
   3.7% swing from UKIP since 2013 but 6.3% Conservative to UKIP since 2009
- 0.5% majority in Llantwit Major over Llantwit 1st Independents in a ward returning 4 Llantwit 1st in 2012 but 3 Llantwit 1st, 1 Conservative in 2004 and 2008
   ~16% swing Llantwit First to Conservative since 2012 and ~8% since 2008

Labour retained Camden: St Pancras & Somers Town, Croydon: Selhurst and Denbighshire: Rhyl South West
- 60.8% majority in St Pancras & Somers Town over Conservative in this traditionally Labour 3 seat ward
  small swing Conservative to Labour since 2014 but ~11% since 2010
- 59.8% majority in Selhurst over Conservative in another traditionally Labour 3 seat ward
  ~10% swing Conservative to Labour since 2014, largely due to increase in Labour share, and ~15% since 2010
- 46.0% majority in Rhyl South West over Conservative in this traditionally Labour 2 seat ward
  ~6% swing Labour to Conservative since 2012 but ~7½% Conservative to Labour since 2008
but lost Fife, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie to SNP and Western Isles, Benbecula & North Uist to an Independent
- 19½% SNP majority in Glenrothes West & Kinglassie over Labour in a ward returning 2 Labour, 2 SNP in both 2007 and 2012
  ~9% swing Labour to SNP since 2012 and ~3% since 2007
- Labour did not defend Western Isles, Benbecula & North Usit won by an Independent with a 18.2% majority in a straight fight with SNP

SNP retained West Lothian: Armadale & Blackridge whilst gaining Fife: Glenrothes West & Kinglassie from Labour and Moray: Buckie from Independent
- 16.3% majority in Armadale & Blackridge over Labour in a ward returning an Independent, Labour and SNP in both 2007 and 2012
   swing not considered meaningful as Stuart Borrowman topped the first preferences in both 2007 and 2012
- 31.6% majority in Buckie over Independent in a ward returning 2 Independents (husband & wife) and 1 SNP in both 2007 & 2012
   ~20% swing - if meaningful - from 2014 by-election, won by an Independent following death of the wife, 2012 and 2007

An Independent retained Western Isles: West Side & Ness unopposed. 

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