Saturday 28 February 2015

Latest #GE2015 Forecast from Electoral Calculus

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 28 February 2015 at 

Current Prediction: Labour short 25 of majority
Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30732.4%265
LAB29.7%25833.6%301
LIB23.6%577.8%15
UKIP3.2%014.3%1
Green1.0%16.5%1
SNP1.7%63.7%46
PC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.2%0
N.Ire1818
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 15 to 27 Feb 15, sampling 10,871 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
33%
Lab/Nat coalition
16%
Conservative majority
14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
12%
Con/Nat coalition
10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

February saw little change to the overall averages of party support. Labour
continues to have a small lead over the Conservatives nationally, and the SNP
maintained its strong position in Scotland with 46 seats predicted.
UKIP lost a little ground, dropping about 1.5%. Overall the situation would
imply a Labour/SNP coalition at Westminster.

The most recent polls from the eight pollsters who published polls in February
are:

Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 34, Lab 36, Lib 6, UKIP 9, Green 7
ICM (Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 10, UKIP 9, Green 7
TNS BMRB has Con 28, Lab 35, Lib 6, UKIP 18, Green 7
Opinium (Observer) has Con 35, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 15, Green 7
ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 34, Lab 32, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 8
Survation (Daily Mirror) has Con 28, Lab 34, Lib 10, UKIP 19, Green 4
YouGov (Sun) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 6
Populus has Con 31, Lab 33, Lib 9, UKIP 16, Green 6

The averages: Con 32 (nc), Lab 34 (+1), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 14 (-2), Grn 6 (nc).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 25 seats short of a majority,
winning 301 seats (+4 seats since 1 February).

Electoral Calculus
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