Monday 29 September 2014

PETERBOROUGH VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

 Stewart Jackson Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Peterborough Euro 2014 vote share (difference from 2010 General Election)

UKIP 15,379 - 33.5% (+26.8%)
Conservatives 11,744 - 25.6% (-14.8%)
Labour 11,526 - 25.1% (-4.4%)
Greens 2,597 - 5.6%
LibDems 2.089 - 4.5% (-15.1%)
Others 2,578 - 5.7%

Votes cast 45,913

Vote share for Local Elections held on the same day

Highlighted in blue are the wards which fall under the Peterborough constituency

Vote totals for them

Labour 8,807 - 31.7%
Conservatives 8,120 - 29.3%
UKIP 4,912 - 17.7%
LibDems 2,419 - 8.7%
Greens 754 - 2.7%
Others 2,732 - 9.9%

Total votes cast 27,744





ConLab LDUKIPGreenBNPTUSCInd (1)Ind (2)Ind (3)Eng Dem
Peterborough Bretton North520700195782







Central7852,044

320






Dogsthorpe228610









East991805
614133






Eye & Thorney1,008327
763180
81




Fletton & Woodston739699
591165
39157



Glinton & Wittering829205
464


379



Newborough26394




570



North128372




857



Orton Longueville715672
755144
99




Orton Waterville1,169373
780206
44




Orton with Hampton937636267
284

368



Park1,1911,41074283121
12




Paston443641
752







Stanground Central957811







610

Walton228195617495







Werrington North36224269


671,145



Werrington South4912301,174521







West1,4821,137290702



















Totals, 2014
13,46612,2032,6867,5021,553
3423,476

610
%
31.2128.296.2317.393.60
0.798.06

1.41
Totals, 2010
29,53618,0646,816
1,053

5,230

2,355
%
44.9127.4710.36
1.60

7.95

3.58
Changes
-13.700.82-4.1417.392.00
0.790.10

-2.17

Electoral Calculus is predicting a Labour gain

  Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP: Stewart Jackson  (CON)
County/Area: (East Anglia)
Electorate: 70,316
Turnout: 63.89%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,13340.36%33.77%
LAB13,27229.54%37.87%
LIB8,81619.62%2.69%
UKIP3,0076.69%19.97%
OTH1,6993.78%5.69%
CON Majority4,86110.82%Pred Maj 4.10%


This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Peterborough, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
PeterboroughEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PeterboroughBretton North5,5781,2941,0198873653,5651,0831,3651229963,566
PeterboroughBretton South1,842740265611101,17661932682221,175
PeterboroughCentral7,0221,6902,4231332394,4851,4142,561184914,484
PeterboroughDogsthorpe5,7607627332,110743,6796381,4222891,3303,679
PeterboroughEast6,7571,9651,4833115594,3181,6441,692439404,319
PeterboroughEye and Thorney3,8641,2633804903352,4681,057603677412,468
PeterboroughNewborough1,8115501611592861,156460241224331,156
PeterboroughNorth3,7316066663977152,384507822541,0002,383
PeterboroughPark6,2361,8791,5501993583,9861,5721,719276673,985
PeterboroughPaston5,0531,4549562935263,2291,2171,130408433,230
PeterboroughRavensthorpe4,7211,1381,3823651323,0179521,559504553,016
PeterboroughWalton3,5197863319701612,2486586731337852,249
PeterboroughWerrington North4,7349635818796013,0248069051201,1923,023
PeterboroughWerrington South4,2939743421,42702,7438158341968982,743
PeterboroughWest5,3952,0689991362453,4481,7301,160195393,448
Total70,31618,13213,2718,8174,70644,92915,17217,0121,20811,53244,924
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.

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