2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

Another forecast has been released from the people at http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 300 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss possible. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Liberal Democrats. Fading slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
  • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely.

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	249	300	352	-6
Labour	250	298	344	40
Liberal Democrats	9	20	34	-37
SNP	5	8	13	2
Plaid Cymru	1	2	3	-1
Greens	0	1	1	0
UKIP	0	2	5	2
Other	1	1	1	0

1

• Seats
• Votes
• Majority
• Plurality

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	249	300	352	-6
Labour	250	298	344	40
Liberal Democrats	9	20	34	-37
SNP	5	8	13	2
Plaid Cymru	1	2	3	-1
Greens	0	1	1	0
UKIP	0	2	5	2
Other	1	1	1	0

• Map
• Cartogram
• Polls
• Forecast History