YOU GOV POLL TURNED INTO ELECTORAL PREDICTION

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8bycu00q7d/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-050713.pdf

Above is the You Gov poll headline rate LABOUR 39% CONSERVATIVES 33% UKIP 12% LIBDEMS 11%

Below is how it looks when you put the figures thru the Electoral Calculus. Obviously this is subjective because voting patterns change and personal votes come into play but this is how it transpires at the moment.

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: LAB majority 74

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	33.00%	18	83	242
LAB	29.66%	258	39.00%	104	0	362
LIB	23.56%	57	11.00%	0	36	21
UKIP	3.17%	0	12.00%	0	0	0
NAT	2.26%	9	2.26%	0	2	7
MIN	0.89%	1	0.89%	0	1	0
OTH	3.48%	0	1.85%	0	0	0

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List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2010
Aberconwy	Clwyd	LAB	gain from	CON	: Guto Bebb
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Grampian	CON	gain from	LIB	: Sir Robert Smith
Amber Valley	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Nigel Mills
Arfon	Gwynedd	LAB	gain from	NAT	: Hywel Williams
Argyll and Bute	Argyll and Bute	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Alan Reid
Bedford	Bedfordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Southwark	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-Tweed	Northumberland	CON	gain from	LIB	: Alan Beith
Birmingham Yardley	Birmingham	LAB	gain from	LIB	: John Hemming
Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Paul Maynard
Bradford East	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	LIB	: David Ward
Brecon and Radnorshire	Powys	CON	gain from	LIB	: Roger Williams
Brent Central	Brent	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Sarah Teather
Brentford and Isleworth	Hounslow	LAB	gain from	CON	: Mary Macleod
Brigg and Goole	Humber area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Andrew Percy
Brighton Kemptown	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Simon Kirby
Brighton Pavilion	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	MIN	: Caroline Lucas
Bristol North West	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Charlotte Leslie
Bristol West	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Stephen Williams
Broxtowe	Nottinghamshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Anna Soubry
Burnley	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Gordon Birtwistle
Burton	Staffordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Andrew Griffiths
Bury North	Western Manchester	LAB	gain from	CON	: David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Highland	LAB	gain from	LIB	: John Thurso
Calder Valley	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Craig Whittaker
Cambridge	Cambridgeshire	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Julian Huppert
Cannock Chase	Staffordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Aidan Burley
Cardiff Central	South Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Jenny Willott
Cardiff North	South Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jonathan Evans
Carlisle	Cumbria	LAB	gain from	CON	: John Stevenson
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Dyfed	LAB	gain from	CON	: Simon Hart
Cheadle	Eastern Manchester	CON	gain from	LIB	: Mark Hunter
Cheltenham	Gloucestershire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Martin Horwood
Chester, City of	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Stephen Mosley
Chippenham	Wiltshire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Duncan Hames
Cleethorpes	Humber area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Martin Vickers
Colne Valley	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jason McCartney
Corby	Northamptonshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall North	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Dan Rogerson
Crawley	West Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Henry Smith
Crewe and Nantwich	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Edward Timpson
Croydon Central	Croydon	LAB	gain from	CON	: Gavin Barwell
Dewsbury	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole North	Dorset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Annette Brooke
Dover	Kent	LAB	gain from	CON	: Charlie Elphicke
Dudley South	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	: Chris Kelly
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Dumfries and Galloway	LAB	gain from	CON	: David Mundell
Dunbartonshire East	Glasgow area	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Jo Swinson
Dundee East	Tayside	LAB	gain from	NAT	: Stewart Hosie
Ealing Central and Acton	Ealing	LAB	gain from	CON	: Angie Bray
Eastbourne	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LIB	: Stephen Lloyd
Eastleigh	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh West	Edinburgh area	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Michael Crockart
Elmet and Rothwell	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield North	Enfield	LAB	gain from	CON	: Nick de Bois
Erewash	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jessica Lee
Filton and Bradley Stoke	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders Green	Barnet	LAB	gain from	CON	: Mike Freer
Gloucester	Gloucestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Richard Graham
Gordon	Grampian	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Malcolm Bruce
Great Yarmouth	Norfolk	LAB	gain from	CON	: Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley Regis	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	: James Morris
Harlow	Essex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Robert Halfon
Harrow East	Harrow	LAB	gain from	CON	: Bob Blackman
Hastings and Rye	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Amber Rudd
Hendon	Barnet	LAB	gain from	CON	: Matthew Offord
High Peak	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood Green	Haringey	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Lynne Featherstone
Hove	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Mike Weatherley
Ilford North	Redbridge	LAB	gain from	CON	: Lee Scott
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Highland	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Danny Alexander
Ipswich	Suffolk	LAB	gain from	CON	: Ben Gummer
Keighley	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Kris Hopkins
Kingswood	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and Fleetwood	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Eric Ollerenshaw
Lincoln	Lincolnshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Karl McCartney
Loughborough	Leicestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Nicky Morgan
Manchester Withington	Central Manchester	LAB	gain from	LIB	: John Leech
Milton Keynes South	Buckinghamshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: David Morris
Northampton North	Northamptonshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Michael Ellis
Northampton South	Northamptonshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Brian Binley
Norwich North	Norfolk	LAB	gain from	CON	: Chloe Smith
Norwich South	Norfolk	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Simon Wright
Nuneaton	Warwickshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Marcus Jones
Pendle	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Andrew Stephenson
Peterborough	Cambridgeshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Devon	LAB	gain from	CON	: Oliver Colville
Pudsey	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Stuart Andrew
Reading West	Berkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Alok Sharma
Redcar	Teeside	LAB	gain from	LIB	: Ian Swales
Redditch	Hereford and Worcestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Karen Lumley
Ribble South	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Lorraine Fullbrook
Rossendale and Darwen	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jake Berry
Rugby	Warwickshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Mark Pawsey
Sherwood	Nottinghamshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Mark Spencer
Solihull	Coventry and Solihull	CON	gain from	LIB	: Lorely Burt
Somerset North East	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and Frome	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: David Heath
St Austell and Newquay	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Stephen Gilbert
St Ives	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	: Andrew George
Stafford	Staffordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jeremy Lefroy
Stevenage	Hertfordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Stephen McPartland
Stockton South	Teeside	LAB	gain from	CON	: James Wharton
Stourbridge	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	: Margot James
Stroud	Gloucestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and Cheam	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	: Paul Burstow
Swindon South	Wiltshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Robert Buckland
Taunton Deane	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Jeremy Browne
Thurrock	Essex	LAB	gain from	CON	: Jackie Doyle-Price
Torbay	Devon	CON	gain from	LIB	: Adrian Sanders
Vale of Glamorgan	South Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	CON	: Alun Cairns
Warrington South	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: David Mowat
Warwick and Leamington	Warwickshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Chris White
Warwickshire North	Warwickshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Dan Byles
Watford	Hertfordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Richard Harrington
Waveney	Suffolk	LAB	gain from	CON	: Peter Aldous
Weaver Vale	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Graham Evans
Wells	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	: Tessa Munt
Wirral West	Merseyside	LAB	gain from	CON	: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South West	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	: Paul Uppal
Worcester	Hereford and Worcestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Robin Walker

The MP listed is as at the general election in 2010 and may not be that party's candidate at the next election.