Friday 31 May 2013

NEWARK BY ELECTION BETTING FROM SHARPE ANGLE


NEWARK BY ELECTION???

MP Patrick Mercer quits Tory whip over Panorama lobbying inquiry

Footage of Patrick Mercer on Panorama Patrick Mercer signs a contract with the fake lobbying company set up by BBC Panorama

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MP Patrick Mercer has resigned the Tory whip to "save my party embarrassment" after claims by the BBC's Panorama programme he broke Parliament's lobbying rules.

2010 result


Candidates
Name Party Votes % +/-
Patrick Mercer Conservative 27,590 53.9 +3.4
Ian Campbell Labour 11,438 22.3 -6.0
Pauline Jenkins Liberal Democrat 10,246 20.0 +1.6
Tom Irvine UK Independence Party 1,954 3.8 +1.0
Majority 16,152 31.5
Turnout 51,228 71.4 +8.0

2005 Result

Party   Votes Share
Conservative
50.5%
Labour
28.3%
Liberal Democrat
18.4%
Others
2.8%

LATEST ABERDEEN DONSIDE BETTING PRICES

  • 1/25 SNP shortened further from 1/10 was 1/5 opening price
  • 8/1 Labour drifting was 9/2 and opening price of 7/2
  • ALL OTHER PRICES HAVE STAYED THE SAME
  • 100/1 UKIP did have an opening price of 66/1
  • 100/1 Conservatives
  • 100/1 Liberal Democrats
  • 100/1 Green

ROUND UP OF COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULTS FOR MAY

Middleenglander does us proud again with round up of May's council by election results.

There were 8 by-elections in the later weeks of May with 4 (50%) changing hands. There was also a deferred County Council election in Somerset, Coker which the Conservatives gained from Lib Dems although this is not included within the statistics.

Party   Candidates        Defended         Retained         Gained            Lost          Won      
Conservatives            7            3            1
         2         1
Labour            8            4            3          1         1         4
Lib Dems            6                     


UKIP            4

          2
         2
Residents Association            1

          1
         1
BNP            2




Greens            2            1

         1
TUSAC            2




Independents            3




Total          35            8           4          4        4         8

Conservatives lost 2 seats, 1 to Labour and 1 to UKIP
* Labour gained Weymouth & Portland, Melcombe Regis on a swing of around 8% since 2012 and 2011
   - seat was Lib Dems for many years and late councillor elected in 2012 had previous been Lib Dem
* UKIP gained Thanet, Cliftonville East at first attempt following jailing of previous councillor

* Labour lost Rotherham, Rawmarsh to UKIP who had not contested the 2012 elections
    - although UKIP had polled 32% in 2008 followed by 13% / 14% in 2010 and 2011

* Whitwell Residents Association gained Bolsover, Whitwell from Greens who did not defend the seat
   - Residents won the second seat in 2011 and both seats in 2007 as well as 2003

LICHFIELD - FAZELEY (CON HOLD) 6.7% SWING CON TO LAB

Doug Pullen (Conservative) 423
Dave Whatton (Labour) 375



Lichfield DC - Fazeley - Conservative hold

Party  2013 votes     2013 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2011 "average"
Conservative       423       53.0%         -6.7%           -1.1%         +6.5%             +6.4%
Labour       375       47.0%        +6.7%          +1.1%         +8.2%           +10.3%
Lib Dems



        -14.7%            -16.7%
Total votes       798
         -472           -318          -578              -409

Swing Conservative to Labour 6.7% on "top" basis and 1.1% on "average" basis since 2011 and 1% / 2% since 2007

Also in parish by election

7h
result Winwick 470 votes cast turnout 25.2% Independent 1 226 Ind 2. 57 Con 35 Lab 62 UKIP 62

Thursday 30 May 2013

ABERDEEN DONSIDE LATEST OPINION POLL

Poll in todays Evening Express has the following.

SNP 35.7%
Con 11.9%
Lab 10.3%
Ukip 8.7%
LiBdeM 4.8%

arrived at with a sample size of just 126.
The raw figures being 45 SNP 15 Con 13 Lab 11 UKIP 6 LD, leaving 36 don't knows
But it didnt stop the Conservatives being optimistic. Being 24% behind is challenging according to the Tories.


LATEST YOUGOV POLL

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/26basl73ta/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290513.pdf

If you like staring at figures then knock yourself out. But as for getting a real feel of voting intentions and what will really happen at the next election or any election it is no more than looking out the window to get a long term weather forecast.

PORTSMOUTH SOUTH - MIKE HANCOCK

This story has been rumbling on for a while and has been a will there won't there be a by election soon? It seems that we are entering end game and this article from the BBC seems to have start, middle and get out clause in it. Lib Dems are finally doing something about him though not admitting he has done anything. It is then setting the wheels in motion than at the end it mentions his angina so I am guessing when all looks bleak he will resign due to ill health. Am I cynical???

Source
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has asked the party's chief whip to invoke disciplinary procedures against Portsmouth South MP Mike Hancock.
The party confirmed Mr Hancock had received legal papers of a High Court civil action against him regarding an allegation of inappropriate conduct with a woman constituent in 2009.
Mr Hancock said he will "vigorously" defend himself against the claim.
The party said it was not pre-judging the case's outcome.
He is also accused of breaching the code of conduct at Portsmouth City Council, where he is also a councillor.
The party confirmed Mr Clegg has asked Chief Whip Alistair Carmichael to convene an urgent meeting under the disciplinary procedures of the parliamentary party between himself, Mr Hancock and deputy leader Simon Hughes.
Spy allegations A spokesman said: "Given the seriousness of the allegations, Nick Clegg has instructed the chief whip to invoke the disciplinary procedures of the party."
Mr Hancock, who said he will not attend the meeting due to medical appointments, said: "I have no intention of allowing any circumstances to bully me out of my job serving the people of Portsmouth.
"I will go at a time of my choosing or if the people decide to get rid of me."
Portsmouth City Council has not revealed details of the separate allegation against Mr Hancock.
The MP was arrested on suspicion of indecent assault in 2010 but never charged.
He was accused of "inappropriate behaviour", which he denied, towards a female constituent following a series of visits he made to her home.
It was alleged he placed his hand on her breast, exposing himself and kissing her without consent.
Mr Hancock hit the headlines in 2011 when he had an affair with his aide, Katia Zatuliveter, who was accused of being a Russian spy.
But the Special Immigration Appeals Commission said it had seen nothing to support the allegations against Miss Zatuliveter and she won an appeal against deportation.
Mr Hancock resigned from his post on the defence select committee as a result of the investigation but said he had not passed on material to Miss Zatuliveter that was not in the public domain or that was classified.
The councillor, who has been an MP since 1997, had major heart surgery last year after suffering from angina.

Wednesday 29 May 2013

BY ELECTION LICHFIELD - FAZELEY 30/05/13

LICHFIELD - Fazeley (Independent (ex-Conservative) resigned)

2011 - Con 758/595/460, Lab 512
2007 - Con 640/547/501, Lab 534/408/385, LD 202
2003 - Lab 467/342/340, Con 356/283/261, LD 220

Doug PULLEN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Dave WHATTON (The Labour Party Candidate)

Just the one full council election tomorrow although there is an interesting parish by election in Warrington which may see the first UKIP councillor elected in the area.

LATEST YOUGOV POLL

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7k2i982nm6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280513.pdf

Someone left a good comment recently about comres, saying comres = comedy results. As their polling varied so differently. I have said many times before that polling is just afiller for the real results of elections. But it is always good to look at some stats.

HEADLINE RATE

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 28th May - CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%; APP -34

BIG DIFFERENCE IN AGE VOTING INTENTION

18-25

LAB 41% CON 22% LIBDEM 13% UKIP 9% SNP 5% GREEN 4% BNP 3% RESPECT 3%

But at the over 60 plus group

CON 34% LAB 33% UKIP 20% LIBDEMS 7% SNP 2% GREEN 1% BNP 1% RESPECT 0

So do folks get wiser as they get older or less radical???

Tuesday 28 May 2013

COMRES OPEN EUROPE POLL FULL STATS

http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/Open_Europe-ComRes_poll.pdf

In a General Election, Labour would win 37% of votes, followed
by the Conservatives on 26%, UKIP on 20% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.

Among those certain to vote in next year’s European Parliament elections
, UKIP would come first overall on 27%,followed by Labour on 23%. The Conservatives would come third with 21% and the Lib Dems fourth on 18%
.
So difference between their result for general elections and euro elections
Difference between euro and general election in brackets
Labour 37% (+14%) Conservatives 26% (+5%) UKIP 20% (-7%) Lib Dems 9% (-9%)

Unless people like the very pro european stance of Lib Dems but can't understand why someone would swing from Labour to Lib Dems. Do they really think Labour is not supportive enough of a pro european stance?

Monday 27 May 2013

Why you can't trust a poll.

CON 21%, LAB 23%, LDEM 18%, UKIP 27%, Others 11%,

Is the headline rate by COMRES for intentions for the European election next year.

It has been announced by many political blogs and sites and because UKIP have come top has grabbed a lot of attention. But where is the workings out, I see the answer but how have Labour lost 12%?

ComRes/People – CON 22%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 23%, GRN 5%, Others 8% from January

So they say there has been a 11% swing labour to lib dems??? WTF!

Someone has been copying down their homework wrongly. I want to see the workings out.

Saturday 25 May 2013

Former Glasgow Labour MP Jimmy Wray dies

Former Glasgow Labour MP Jimmy Wray dies

Jimmy Wray Jimmy Wray, whose roots were in the Gorbals, has been described as a "formidable man"

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The former Glasgow Labour MP Jimmy Wray has died at the age of 78.
Mr Wray represented Glasgow Provan and Glasgow Baillieston for 18 years, stepping down in 2005 after a period of ill health.
Before standing for parliament, he served as a councillor in the city of Glasgow and on Strathclyde Regional Council.
Scottish Labour Leader Johann Lamont has paid tribute to Mr Wray, describing him as a "formidable man".
Mr Wray was one of a family of nine and grew up in the Gorbals area of Glasgow.
Ms Lamont said: "I remember Jimmy fondly for his personal kindness and generosity but most of all for his love of the Labour Party, which he served with distinction for a great many years.
"Even after he stepped down as an MP, he continued to support the party in any way he could.
"Jimmy was a formidable man, growing up in the Gorbals and known to be a good boxer."
During his career in the House of Commons, he was described as a vocal advocate of the needs of his impoverished constituency who campaigned strongly on "quality of life" issues, fighting against the prevalence of drugs and knives in the community.
Ms Lamont added: "He never forgot his roots and used his experience to fight hard for those who needed someone to speak up for them."

ABERDEEN DONSIDE INTERVIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES

Conservatives: Ross Thomson
Green Party: Rhonda Reekie
Labour: Willie Young
Liberal Democrats: Christine Jardine
National Front Scotland: Dave MacDonald
Scottish Christian Party: Tom Morrow
Scottish Democratic Alliance: James Trolland
SNP: Mark McDonald
UKIP: Otto Inglis
Click on any of the candidates to view their interview with STV’s Bernard Ponsonby or Claire Stewart.

Friday 24 May 2013

BOLSOVER - WHITWELL BY ELECTION RESULT (RA GAIN)

Result from Bolsover Council's website:

Viv Mills (Whitwell Residents Association) - 347
Frank Raspin (Labour) - 256


Bolsover DC, Whitwell - Whitwell Residents gain from Green

Party  2013 votes     2013 share  since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2011 "average"
Whitwell Residents        347        57.5%        +30.4%           +33.0%        +13.0%           +15.6%
Labour        256        42.5%        +19.5%           +19.5%        +17.3%           +17.1%
Greens

         -27.2%            -28.6%

Independent

         -22.7%            -23.9%         -30.3%            -32.7%
Total votes        603
        -1,063             -980          -814              -708

Swing, if meaningful, ~6% Labour to Residents since 2011 but ~1% / 2% Residents to Labour since 2007

HOW FALSE POLLS SEEM TO BE

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8lvxse4f91/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230513.pdf

The latest YOUGOV poll is out and now it shows a 13% lead for LABOUR

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd May - CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -34 are the figures.

But of course delve deeper and you find the cause. It seems that the older you get the less likely you are to vote labour, so what is the best way to skew a poll. Ask more young people how they are likely to vote. In the past polling the section for 18-24 has been negligible and they have had to star it saying that not enough had been polled to make it credible.

This time they have asked more than 200 from this group who they would vote for and of course it skews the figures.

Labour can pronounce a huge lead.

If this was the case then the May elections would have been much different but then again the pollsters or Labour for that matter wouldn't want that it doesn't make the sort of press which they want.

I wish YOUGOV would be restricted to a weekly or fortnightly poll like most other pollsters they might just get the same results as them as well then.

BOLSOVER - WHITWELL PARISH COUNCIL ELECTION RESULT

Whitwell Parish Council - Thursday 10th January 2013

The election for the vacancy on Whitwell Parish Council has taken place and the results are below. The total electrorate is 3.145 and the turnout was 14.24%.
Name of Candidate Description (if any) Number of Votes
AUSTIN, Karl Peter Hill 267
BURDETT, Simon Charles The Labour Party 179

As we await the result from yesterdays by election result for the district council I found this and wondered if it would give an indication to how the District council result may have gone as well.

Thursday 23 May 2013

VOTE JEDI

I honestly think polling sometimes is a bit of a farce. Over the past twenty years I have had a slow progression of voting for three parties. My mind didn't swing wildly on a daily basis, I would not see a news event and suddenly decide I was no longer voting one way then the following week give my loyalty and vote back to my original choice.

No! It takes time and for most I guess they stay faithful for years and then if moved do not go back. You may have the floating voter but I would say this is more like a leaf on the top of the pond being gently blown from one side to the other not a bit of drift wood at the mercy of a raging river.

What I am trying to say is that pollsters and there political polls are nothing more than looking at the weather for the year ahead by climbing up a hill and looking into the distance.

So I am thinking of finding a way of getting people to say they will vote Jedi, it is a religion so why not a political movement. I feel the true thoughts of someones intention should be in the voting booth not when you are confronted by Joe or Joanna bloggs asking who you voted for. Or when you reply to an online poll or get rung up.

So all ideas welcome and spread the word. If you get asked who you will vote for. You say let the force be with em' I am voting JEDI!!!

SHOCKING PHOTO OF EDF FIGHTING POLICE ON THE STREETS OF WOOLWICH

LATEST ABERDEEN DONSIDE BETTING ODDS

Snp has shortened from 1/5 to 1/10

Labour moved out from 7/2 to 9/2 as well as UKIP from 66/1 to 100/1

By-election winner


SHOULD WE REINTRODUCE THE DEATH PENALTY?

Yesterdays events in Woolwich I think if nothing else should spark a debate as to what we do with certain individuals.

There is no way that these men can say they didn't commit the crime.

The crime itself is so inhumane that I don't think it is something you can be rehabilitated from.

Why should the tax payer pay to keep these people alive for the rest of their natural lives because we fear being like them?

Situations like these call for the ultimate punishment and might have stopped such an incident from happening.

At present people commit crimes knowing that if they get caught the worst that will happen is that the state will look after them for the rest of their natural life.

I think that time has now changed and we should remove them from society completely.

What are your thoughts?


There is a AGREE/DISAGREE button under this post, even if you don't leave a comment feel free to press which option for your thoughts You agree we should reintroduce the death penalty or disagree and think we shouldn't. Your commentary is also more than welcome.

LATEST YOUGOV POLL- 22nd May - CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 16%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/e6ynao0laz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220513.pdf

Headline shows UKIP still clearly beating the Lib Dems and Labour ten points clear of the Conservatives.

But if you add left and right it then gets closer 50% left and 45% right.

So would a Tory / UKIP coalition be a much stronger one than Tory / Lib Dem which we have now?

Yet again the legitimacy of this poll comes into question when Labours strongest numbers comes from 18-24 with 50% of the responders from this age group. Yet by YOUGOV's own admission there is not enough people polled for it to be correct.

It is votes that count and UKIP ran at 24% in Mays elections and around 20% with Opinium and Survation. Not as pro Labour as You Gov seem to be.

Wednesday 22 May 2013

IS THIS WHAT THE WOOLWICH MURDERERS WANTED?




So you attack the police because a would be terrorist murdered a serving soldier.

I can understand the anger but not the moronity of their actions.

If you real want to make something good from this give to HELP FOR HEROES

WOOLWICH KILLING OF SOLDIER IS TERRORIST ATTACK

 SKY NEWS IS NOW REPORTING IT AS A TERRORIST ATTACK







BELOW IS FROM BBC NEWS

A man has died and two are injured after police responded to a reported machete attack in south-east London.
Eyewitnesses said a man was attacked in the street by two individuals who were later shot by officers.
Local MP Nick Raynsford said the dead man was a soldier serving at Woolwich barracks but the Ministry of Defence could not confirm this.
A meeting of the government's emergency response committee Cobra has been called by the home secretary.
Mr Raynsford said police have removed a "substantial number of weapons" from the scene, including knives and at least one firearm.
London Ambulance Service confirmed one man had been found dead at the scene.
It said two men had been taken to hospital, one in a serious condition.
One of the men was airlifted from the scene, and another was taken away by road ambulance
A spokesperson said an air ambulance and four crews had attended the scene.

“Start Quote

They dragged him from the pavement and dumped his body in the middle of the road”
James Eyewitness
Witnesses reported by the Press Association said two people had been shot after armed police were called to an incident in which a man was attacked with a machete-style knife.

ERIC JOYCE ARRESTED AGAIN (FALKIRK BY ELECTION MUST BE SOON)

http://www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/transport/eric-joyce-mp-arrested-after-edinburgh-airport-row-1-2939379

DISGRACED MP Eric Joyce is facing charges of breach of the peace after being arrested following an incident at Edinburgh Airport, after one witness said police pinned him to the floor.
The incident, is said to have involved an argument over a mobile phone.
Mr Joyce, who had arrived on a flight from London, is understood to have left his phone on the plane, and was said to have become abusive to handling staff agents when he was not immediately allowed to retrieve it.
Airport staff contacted the police, who the MP was also said to have behaved aggressively towards, resulting in a scuffle which saw Mr Joyce end up on the floor before being arrested.
A source said: “The handling agents called the police after a passenger became abusive towards them. When the police arrived the passenger was seen to push one of the officers. The officers attempted to calm him down but he became more and more aggressive and eventually went to grab one of the 
officers. The officers then pushed him up against the desk and down on to the floor, where he was handcuffed. A policeman was on top of him, with his knee at the back of his neck.
“A whole flight full of people walked past while he was restrained on the ground.”


You really couldn't make it up, at what point will he fall on his sword?

THE POLITICAL PARTY'S CYBER WARRIORS

I know it is not an exact science, due to the fact that you can follow more than one party and you don't have to support the party to be following them. But I thought it would still be interesting just to see how many followers each party has at the moment. Obviously there is bloggers and tweeters who are independent of the parties and in some cases have more followers but it is just interesting to see who is getting followed.

As of May 22nd 2013 11.30am

TWITTER

86,789
85,447
43,333
40,039
24.827
20,913
9,161
7,071
4.723
3,886
2.630
1,872
1,334
1,283
320

FACEBOOK

CONSERVATIVES 159K LIKES
LABOUR 145K LIKES
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 91,728 LIKES
BNP  88,366
UKIP  36,413
SNP 26,328
THE GREEN PARTY 20,139
LOONY PARTY  11,754
PLAID CYMRU  7.756
NHA PARTY 3.560
TUSC  865
MEBYON KERNOW 463

Interesting to see how the Conservatives have the edge by 10k on Facebook and how many more people follow the BNP on facebook than on twitter. It amazes me the amount of people who will use an account which gives up a lot of details and have attributed to them some of the comments which they have made. Takes all sorts I guess.

BOLSOVER - WHITWELL

BOLSOVER - Whitwell (Green resigned)

2011 - Grn 453, WRA 452/326, Lab 383/342, Ind 378
2007 - WRA 631/468, Ind 429, Lab 357/308
2003 - WRA 755/618, Lab 428/373

Viv MILLS (Whitwell Residents Association Candidate)
Frank RASPIN (The Labour Party Candidate)

Just the one by election tomorrow and it is guaranteed to be a gain as the Green Party are not standing a candidate to try and retain the seat.

http://greeninbolsover.blogspot.co.uk/ Duncan Kerr who was the Green Party councillor resigned as he has moved to the West Country, read his blog about himself and what he has done for the area.

Tuesday 21 May 2013

MPs who voted for the 'conscience clause' for registrars


   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
    Get Adobe Flash player

 

MPs who voted for the 'conscience clause' for registrars

Here is the full list of 150 MPs who voted for the amendment saying registrars should be allowed to refuse to conduct a gay marriage on the grounds of "conscientious objection".
Here are the 121 Conservatives who voted for the amendment
Nigel Adams (Selby & Ainsty), Adam Afriyie (Windsor), Peter Aldous (Waveney), David Amess (Southend West), Steven Baker (Wycombe), Tony Baldry (Banbury), Stephen Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East), Henry Bellingham (Norfolk North West), Sir Paul Beresford (Mole Valley), Jake Berry (Rossendale & Darwen), Andrew Bingham (High Peak), Peter Bone (Wellingborough), Graham Brady (Altrincham & Sale West), Julian Brazier (Canterbury), Andrew Bridgen (Leicestershire North West), Steve Brine (Winchester), Fiona Bruce (Congleton), Robert Buckland (Swindon South), Simon Burns (Chelmsford), David Burrowes (Enfield Southgate), Douglas Carswell (Clacton), Bill Cash (Stone), Christopher Chope (Christchurch), Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Cotswolds, The), Geoffrey Cox (Devon West & Torridge), Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire), David Davies (Monmouth), Glyn Davies (Montgomeryshire), Philip Davies (Shipley), David Davis (Haltemprice & Howden), Jonathan Djanogly (Huntingdon), Richard Drax (Dorset South), Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford & Woodford Green), Charlie Elphicke (Dover), Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North), Mark Field (Cities of London & Westminster), Dr Liam Fox (Somerset North), Richard Fuller (Bedford), Roger Gale (Thanet North), Sir Edward Garnier (Harborough), Mark Garnier (Wyre Forest), Cheryl Gillan (Chesham & Amersham), John Glen (Salisbury), James Gray (Wiltshire North), Damian Green (Ashford), Robert Halfon (Harlow), John Hayes (South Holland & The Deepings), Gordon Henderson (Sittingbourne & Sheppey), Damian Hinds (Hampshire East), Mark Hoban (Fareham), Philip Hollobone (Kettering), Adam Holloway (Gravesham), Sir Gerald Howarth (Aldershot), John Howell (Henley), Stewart Jackson (Peterborough), Gareth Johnson (Dartford), Marcus Jones (Nuneaton), Chris Kelly (Dudley South), Pauline Latham (Derbyshire Mid), Andrea Leadsom (Northamptonshire South), Phillip Lee (Bracknell), Jeremy Lefroy (Stafford), Edward Leigh (Gainsborough), Charlotte Leslie (Bristol North West), Julian Lewis (New Forest East), Ian Liddell-Grainger (Bridgwater & Somerset West), Peter Lilley (Hitchin & Harpenden), Jonathan Lord (Woking), Tim Loughton (Worthing East & Shoreham), Peter Luff (Worcestershire Mid), Anne McIntosh (Thirsk & Malton), Stephen McPartland (Stevenage), Esther McVey (Wirral West), Anne Main (St Albans), Paul Maynard (Blackpool North & Cleveleys), Nigel Mills (Amber Valley), Anne-Marie Morris (Newton Abbot), David Morris (Morecambe & Lunesdale), James Morris (Halesowen & Rowley Regis), Bob Neill (Bromley & Chislehurst), David Nuttall (Bury North), Stephen O'Brien (Eddisbury), Matthew Offord (Hendon), Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster & Fleetwood), Jim Paice (Cambridgeshire South East), Neil Parish (Tiverton & Honiton), Owen Paterson (Shropshire North), Mark Pawsey (Rugby), Mike Penning (Hemel Hempstead), Claire Perry (Devizes), Stephen Phillips (Sleaford & North Hykeham), Chris Pincher (Tamworth), Mark Pritchard (Wrekin, The), Dominic Raab (Esher & Walton), John Randall (Uxbridge & Ruislip South), John Redwood (Wokingham), Jacob Rees-Mogg (Somerset North East), Simon Reevell (Dewsbury), Andrew Robathan (Leicestershire South), Laurence Robertson (Tewkesbury), Andrew Rosindell (Romford), David Rutley (Macclesfield), Sir Richard Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills), Henry Smith (Crawley), John Stevenson (Carlisle), Bob Stewart (Beckenham), Mel Stride (Devon Central), Julian Sturdy (York Outer), David Tredinnick (Bosworth), Andrew Turner (Isle of Wight), Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South West), Martin Vickers (Cleethorpes), Ben Wallace (Wyre & Preston North), Robert Walter (Dorset North), Heather Wheeler (Derbyshire South), Craig Whittaker (Calder Valley), John Whittingdale (Maldon), Bill Wiggin (Herefordshire North), Gavin Williamson (Staffordshire South), Rob Wilson (Reading East), Jeremy Wright (Kenilworth & Southam)
Here are the 8 Labour MPs who voted for it.
Dave Anderson (Blaydon), Joe Benton (Bootle), David Crausby (Bolton North East), Jim Dobbin (Heywood & Middleton), Frank Field (Birkenhead), Mary Glindon (Tyneside North), George Mudie (Leeds East), Virendra Sharma (Ealing Southall)
Here are the 11 Lib Dem MPs who voted for it.
Norman Baker (Lewes), Sir Alan Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed), Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley), Paul Burstow (Sutton & Cheam), Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale), Andrew George (St Ives), Duncan Hames (Chippenham), Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & Old Southwark), John Pugh (Southport), Sarah Teather (Brent Central), Steve Webb (Thornbury & Yate)
Here are the 6 Democratic Unionist MPs who voted for it.
Nigel Dodds (Belfast North), Jeffrey Donaldson (Lagan Valley), Rev William McCrea (Antrim South), Ian Paisley Junior (Antrim North), Jim Shannon (Strangford), David Simpson (Upper Bann)
Here are the 3 SDLP MPs who voted for it.
Mark Durkan (Foyle), Dr Alasdair McDonnell (Belfast South), Margaret Ritchie (Down South)
And here is the 1 independent MP who voted for it.
Lady Sylvia Hermon (Down North)

SURVATION & YOUGOV POLLING REPORT

SURVATION POLL

Is this a rogue poll because it differs so much from the yougov one or is the yougov the rogue one?

YOU GOV POLL

HEADLINES

YOU GOV = CON 31%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%;
SERVATION =  LAB 35%, CON 24%, UKIP 22%, LD 11%

 OF THOSE DEFINITE TO VOTE WITH SURVATION POLLING
LABOUR 28.9% CONSERVATIVE 19.1% UKIP 19% LIBDEMS 8.4%

Survation poll is good as it also breaks down the responder by county as well as age, intention and previous vote. You can see across nearly every region you have UKIP, Con and Labour but you can see big gaps for the libdems which must be worrying for them.

The survation poll also had the highest percentage of former Labour voters now turning UKIP which had hit over 10%

You gov have the same old same old. and I wonder just when will they catch up, the May elections showed UKIP had 24% and close behind, two polling services now show UKIP being very strong it can only be a matter of time before a YouGov poll reflects this.




Monday 20 May 2013

LATEST BETTING ODDS FOR ABERDEEN DONSIDE

 At the moment only Ladbrokes have the prices up and they are as follows

 

By-election winner



Is the Falkirk by election back on?

It seems that Eric Joyce is unhappy with the Labour selection process for the candidate to take his place in Falkirk and says he will resign and force a by election to highlight this. Why resign over this when his own actions have warranted more of a reason to resign? But still a by election is a by election. I don't think he would resign because if you stay the term you get a good pay off, would he really give that on principle? If he had principles he wouldn't be there now. Would he?

SOURCE

 Published on 20/05/2013 02:08
Falkirk MP Eric Joyce has said he will make a decision on whether to stand down and force a by-election in the next few days, following a row over the Labour Party’s selection of his successor.
Mr Joyce was forced out of Labour Party and said he would stand down as the MP for Falkirk West after he was convicted of assaulting Conservative politicians in the Commons last year.
However, Joyce, who now sits as an independent, said he would abandon his plans to stay on until the next general election and resign now unless allegations over a “fix” to select Labour’s candidate for the seat were resolved.
The UK party suspended the selection process for a new candidate in Falkirk West, amid reports that the Unite trade union had recruited dozens of new members to help its favoured contender, Karie Murphy.
Joyce told The Scotsman that unless party leader Ed Miliband took control of Labour’s selection of the candidate for Falkirk, he would seriously consider standing down.
He said he was expecting a reply this week to a letter he sent to Labour asking the UK party leadership to take charge of the selection.
The MP went onto claim that there were discrepancies in the way that Labour Party members had been signed up to take part in the selection process.
He said: “I feel very strongly that the UK party should take control and start from scratch.
“I’ll decide this week when I get the letter back, but Ed Miliband needs to take control of this.
“People have been signed up with wrong names and there have been people ineligible to vote, people who moved years ago.
“I’ve also been told about people in the pub saying, ‘Just put my name in as a member’.”
Joyce also claimed that Labour could lose the Falkirk seat at the next general election, in the same way that the party lost the Holyrood seat for the area to Dennis Canavan in 1999, when the left-winger stood as an independent candidate.
He said: “I want Labour to win the seat, but if people think there’s been a fix, they may punish Labour by voting for the SNP.”

Heres the result from 2010 SNP canvassers at the ready?


Name Party Votes % +/-
Eric Joyce Labour 23,207 45.7 -5.1
John McNally Scottish National Party 15,364 30.3 +8.9
Katie Mackie Conservative 5,698 11.2 +1.3
Kieran Leach Liberal Democrat 5,225 10.3 -5.7
Brian Goldie UK Independence Party 1,283 2.5 +2.5
Majority 7,843 15.4
Turnout 50,777 62.0 +2.4

A MAP OF UKIP COUNCILLORS

Found something interesting on my travels and thought I would share it.

http://mapsengine.google.com/map/view?mid=z62HvuGl_cWg.kpzJ88v3atIA

UKIP National Councillors
A map of UKIP Councillors from Town and Parish Level to District, Borough, County and Unitary level. UKIP Councillors on principle authorities are pinpointed in purple, also each being centred on their ward/division. UKIP Councillors on local lower-tier authorities are pinpointed in yellow. By Ben Walker, UKIP Harrogate. @BWalker_1995

Sunday 19 May 2013

NICK CLEGG TO STOP BEING LEADER OF LIBDEMS BEFORE NEXT ELECTION


The bet can only be found with William Hills and it is 1/2 NO he won't leave before the General Election But is 6/4 that he will and 55% of punters have gone for this bet.

I have said for a while the poor polling for the Lib Dems with them now 13% behind UKIP as you will see here. LATEST OPINIUM POLLING and that they are almost relegated to the Others section. Would mean if he was a premiership manager he would have been sacked long before now.

Another interesting bet is from Ladbrokes in which they ask who will be the next minister to leave the Cabinet. and here is the prices.


  • Vince Cable 6/1
  • Nick Clegg 6/1
  • Michael Gove 10/1
  • Maria Miller 12/1
  • Jeremy Hunt 12/1
  • Justine Greening 12/1
  • George Osborne 12/1
  • Theresa May 12/1
  • Danny Alexander 12/1
  • David Jones 12/1
  • Iain Duncan Smith 16/1
  • Lord Hill 16/1
  • Chris Grayling 16/1
  • Theresa Villiers 16/1
  • Owen Paterson 16/1
  • Patrick McLoughlin 20/1
  • William Hague 20/1
  • Michael Moore 25/1
  • Philip Hammond 25/1
  • Ed Davey 33/1
  • Eric Pickles 33/1
  • David Cameron 33/1
  •  
  • If Nick Clegg goes it must spell the end of the coalition and the end of the government it would also put forward the problem of fixed term elections. The Tories have enough to fight off everyone else so as to stop an election being forced. But would they want the bad publicity.
  •  
  • Year of next election prices
  •  
    • 2013 10/1
    • 2014 5/1
    • 2015 or later 1/4 I hope it is 2015 just for the blogs sake ;o)